OUT-BREAKING UPDATE 4 (PREMIUM-UNLOCKED)

by Dana Lyons
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The following post was originally issued to TLS members on March 3.

 

Discussing “exit strategy” in remaining long positions on the heels of the Fed rate cut.

As you know, the stock market is bouncing back sharply, as we anticipated it would (see our shift to a Bullish Short-Term Outlook in recent days). With that being said, our intermediate-term Risk Model is now in a “Sell” Signal so we are now operating under a “sell the rip” strategy. In light of the rip (now evaporated) following the Fed cut, we thought we’d lay out on paper the prices at which we will look to trim all or some (will make that determination as we proceed) of our remaining positions, as well as index levels for reference (FYI, all these levels were covered in this AM’s DSS so be sure you are watching.):

  • Value Line Geometric (not traded/informational purposes): 502.50 (min), 514 (likely), 527 (best case)
  • S&P 500 (not traded/informational purposes): 3126 (min), 3190 (likely), 3280 (best case)
  • SPY: 312.30 (min), 318.50 (likely), 327.50 (best case)
  • Nasdaq 100 (not traded/informational purposes): 9127 (likely), 9400 (best case)
  • QQQ: 222.50 (likely), 229 (best case)
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (not traded/informational purposes): 27,200 (min), 27,700 (likely), 28,500 (best case)
  • Russell 2000 (not traded/informational purposes): 1552 (min), 1583 (likely), 1615 (best case)
  • IBB: 120.95 (likely), 123.94 (better case) New Highs very possible
  • XLU: 67.15 (likely), 68.90 (better case) New Highs possible
  • IYR: 94.87 (likely), 97.48 (better case) New Highs possible
  • XLP: 61.49 (likely), 62.99 (better case) New Highs possible
  • RWR: 101.50 (likely), 104.30 (best case)
  • SPLV: 58.63 (likely), 60.17 (best case)
  • ITB: 46.41 (likely), 47.40 (better case)
  • XLK: 95.80 (likely), 98.98 (best case)
  • XSD: 101.60 (likely), 104.44 (best case)
  • IHI: 257.16 (likely), 262.03 (better case)
  • HEDJ: 65.45 (likely), 68.00 (better case)
  • EFA: 64.40 (most likely), 65.50 (likely), 66.70 (best case)
  • XLF: 28.03 (most likely), 28.68 (likely), 29.31 (best case)

Stay tuned to our DSS posts and further Out-Breaking posts for updates on our trading game-plan.

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Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

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