Today’s Portugal “surprise” scare served as a reminder that market catalysts often come out of the blue – or at least off the radar. While the Portuguese market had already been down 20% as of yesterday, it had gotten very little media attention. That’s why it pays to keep your eyes on as many markets as possible at all times: the biggest opportunities typically come from places that are out of the spotlight. For example, check out Natural Gas, in the form of the United States Natural Gas Fund $UNG:

Little attention has been paid to Natural Gas since its breakout in January as it has, for the most part, been moving sideways, consolidating the breakout. In our view, it is now at an extremely important level if it is going to make an effort to resume its post-November uptrend. The chart is a bit “busy”, but that’s a testament to the multiple layers of consequence here near the 22.7 level, including:

• the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of 2012-2014 rally
• the 50% Retracement of the post-November rally
• the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of post-January rally
• The breakout opening gap level from January 22 and the February 10 low, during an extremely high-volume period in $UNG

Bulls will want to see this level hold. If it fails, the next significant potential support looks like it’s around 21.10 (50% Retracement of 2012-2014 rally, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of post-November rally and lift-off spot from January’s gap.