This post is more of a birthday card for the U.S. equity bull market than anything else. And considering the duration of the bull, if this were a real card, it would be one of those sarcastic ones mocking the old age of the recipient. Because at 6-years old today, this bull market is now the 4th longest since 1900, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Here are all of the bull markets in the DJIA since 1900 listed by their duration.

By “bull market”, we are using the technical definition, i.e., a rally of at least 20%, containing no intermittent 20% declines. If we were determining bull markets ourselves, we would subjectively exclude some of those listed that occurred as short-term counter-trend bounces within persistent cyclical bear markets, e.g., those from 1930 to early 1932 and 2001-2002. However, based strictly by the definition, there have been 32 bull markets since 1900. 

At 6 years old, this again is the 4th longest bull market in history. The longest ever was the one that launched the post-Great Depression secular (long-term) bull market. It lasted 12 and a half years, from 1949 to 1961. The 2nd longest, spanning from 1990 to 2000, was the one that ended the last great secular bull market. The 3rd longest, from 1921 to 1929, marked the entire secular bull market that ended in the crash of 1929.

Could this current bull be the kickoff to a secular bull market? We have no way of knowing, but we have serious doubts for reasons we’ve covered many times elsewhere. Regardless of where the bull market falls in the long-term cycle, however, it is decidedly long in the tooth. If dog years are multiplied by seven, bull market years might be multiplied by 10. That would put this bull market near senior citizen status. However, old age should not be considered a catalyst for an impending culmination of the bull market. Indeed, various factors (central banks?) may be contributing to a higher life expectancy of bull markets. And who knows, if this is like the secular bull market kickoff rally that began in 1949, it could be merely halfway to its final destination.

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“Bull” photo by Thomas Hawk.

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